SozoRockTechnology

PERSPECTIVE / DATA

A forecast needs
a decision behind it.

The planning value comes from what an organization can do with the result.

Start with a decision that can change

A county may be deciding where to add transport. A health system may be comparing operating hours or a mobile service. A funder may need to assess where additional resources could address an access gap. Each question requires different inputs and a different test of usefulness.

Keep place and time attached

An area-wide estimate does not describe every resident. A historical ZIP Code Tabulation Area is not automatically a current service boundary. The interface should retain the geography, source period and definitions needed to interpret the result.

Compare actions against a shared starting point

Alternative scenarios should begin from the same observed conditions. Changing a transport or capacity assumption changes a future branch; it should not rewrite the historical evidence.

A scenario is a structured way to explore an assumption. It is not proof that an intervention will produce the modeled result.

Make the assumptions inspectable

Which services remain open? What capacity is available? Is the measure a rate, an index or a count? Can the evidence support this geographic resolution? These questions belong in the planning experience.

Close the loop after a decision

Define what will be measured after the intervention and who will review it. Compare the resulting observations with the plan, investigate differences and use that learning in the next decision.

Explore the CB-CAP planning demonstration